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Search Results for: Daniel Kahneman/2011/06/30/the-folly-of-prediction-full-transcript

The Politics of Political Prediction Markets

(Photo: League of Women Voters of California) For years, I have argued that the best way to track what really matters through election season is to follow the political prediction



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Episode 156

A Solution to America’s Gun Problem

Jens Ludwig has an idea for how to fix America’s gun violence problem — and it starts by rejecting conventional wisdom from both sides of the political aisle.

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Episode 30

Why Do We Seek Comfort in the Familiar?

Also: is a little knowledge truly a dangerous thing?…

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Episode 30

Why Do We Seek Comfort in the Familiar? (Replay)

Also: is a little knowledge truly a dangerous thing?

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Episode 63

How Contagious Is Behavior? With Laurie Santos of “The Happiness Lab.”

Also: life is good — so why aren’t you happy?

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Episode 63

How Contagious Is Behavior? With Laurie Santos of “The Happiness Lab.” (Replay)

Why do we mirror other people’s accents? Does DJ Khaled get tired of winning? And also: life is good — so why aren’t you happy?…

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Episode 21

Bring on the Pain!

Bring on the Pain! It’s not about how much something hurts — it’s how you remember the pain. This week, lessons on pain from the New York City subway, the…

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Episode 56

Why Is Academic Writing So Bad?

Also: what does your perfect day look like?…

“Today Show” Transcript

Levitt and Dubner revisited The Today Show on Thursday, June 16. Here’s a transcript: Copyright 2005 National Broadcasting Co. Inc. HEADLINE: Today’s Real Estate; Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt ANCHORS:…



O’Reilly Transcript

There have been several requests on this blog for a transcript of the authors’ recent appearance on The O’Reilly Factor. Here it is: Copyright 2005 Fox News Network, LLC. Fox…



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Episode 117

Nate Silver Says We’re Bad at Making Predictions

Data scientist Nate Silver gained attention for his election predictions. But even the best prognosticators get it wrong sometimes. He talks to Steve about making good decisions with data, why…

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Episode 41

Why Are We So Attracted to Fame?

Also: do we subconsciously lie about our major influences?



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Episode 136

Is Sloth a Sin or a Virtue?

How can we distinguish between laziness and patience? Why do people do crossword puzzles? And how is Angie like a combination of a quantum computer and a Sherman tank? Take…

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Episode 70

In a Job Interview, How Much Does Timing Matter?

Also: Why is it smart to ignore what your podcast hosts look like?…

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Episode 44

Is Empathy in Fact Immoral?

Also: is it better to “go with the wind” or to “be the wind”?


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Episode 72

If Everyone Hates Meetings, Why Do We Have So Many of Them?

Also: Why do so many people feel lost in their 20s?…

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Episode 277

No Hollywood Ending for the Visual Effects Industry

In their chase for a global audience, American movie studios spend billions to make their films look amazing. But almost none of those dollars stay in America. What would it…

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Episode 45

How Much Better Do You Really Want to Be?

Also: why do we pad our speech with so much filler language?…

It Really Is All About the Players

…Sunday, that prediction came true. Okay, that wasn’t much of a prediction (did anyone predict that wouldn’t happen?). And despite the lack of challenge with respect to this prediction, I…



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Episode 488

Does Death Have to Be a Death Sentence?

In this special episode of People I (Mostly) Admire, Steve Levitt speaks with the palliative physician B.J. Miller about modern medicine’s goal of “protecting a pulse at all costs.” Is…

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Episode 69

Does Death Have to Be a Death Sentence?

Palliative physician B.J. Miller asks: Is there a better way to think about dying? And can death be beautiful?…

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Episode 523

Did Michael Lewis Just Get Lucky with “Moneyball”?

No — but he does have a knack for stumbling into the perfect moment, including the recent FTX debacle….

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Episode 523

Did Michael Lewis Just Get Lucky with “Moneyball”?

No — but he does have a knack for stumbling into the perfect moment, including the recent FTX debacle. In this installment of the Freakonomics Radio Book Club, we revisit…

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Episode 59

Do Dreams Actually Mean Anything?

Also: why is music so memorable?…

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Episode 207

How Clearly Do You See Yourself?

Do you see yourself the same way others see you? What’s the difference between self-perception and self-awareness? And why do Mike and Angela both hate fishing?…

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Episode 64

Are Women Required to Be Nicer Than Men?

Also: should you feel guilty if you don’t read books?…

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Episode 121

How Good Are Your Snap Judgments?

How much can you tell about someone from the first few seconds of a Zoom call? What did Stephen think of Angie when he first met her? And: a special…