An Economic Prediction That Actually Came True
…by my 2008 prediction, my friend asked for another prediction for 2009. I decided to quit while I was ahead. It inspired me, however, to come up with a new…
How much can you tell about someone from the first few seconds of a Zoom call? What did Stephen think of Angie when he first met her? And: a special…
It has become fiendishly expensive to produce, and has more competition than ever. And yet the believers still believe. Why? And does the world really want a new musical about…
Jim Yong Kim has an unorthodox background for a World Bank president — and his reign has been just as unorthodox. He has just announced he’s stepping down, well before…
…by my 2008 prediction, my friend asked for another prediction for 2009. I decided to quit while I was ahead. It inspired me, however, to come up with a new…
Who doesn’t love a good prediction market? The Economist does and so does Wired — and we certainly do too, as evidenced here and here. Here is a new blog…
Prediction markets. Are there any other two words that couple as nicely as those, at least to readers of this blog? The promise of a prediction market is simple and…
…been kind enough to create the official Freakonomics Prediction Center. It can be found in the right-hand column of our home page. We’ll post questions and you’ll supply the predictions….
With industries relying on them and profits to be made, weather forecasts are more precise and more popular than ever. But there are clouds on the horizon. Zachary Crockett grabs…
She used to run a behavioral unit in the Obama administration, and now has a similar role at Google. Maya and Steve talk about the power (and limits) of behavioral…
Why have fertility rates dropped so dramatically? Do fathers or mothers get more happiness from parenting? And how does birth order affect a child’s future?…
They used to be the N.F.L.’s biggest stars, with paychecks to match. Now their salaries are near the bottom, and their careers are shorter than ever. We speak with an…
In this episode of No Stupid Questions — a Freakonomics Radio Network show launched earlier this year — Stephen Dubner and Angela Duckworth debate why we watch, read and eat…
Neil Shubin hunts for fossils in the Arctic and experiments with D.N.A. in the lab, hoping to find out how fish evolved to walk on land. He explains why unlocking…
Also: how can we stop confusing correlation with causation?
…behavior is effective. And there is reason to think such an approach would not work. Daniel Kahneman – who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002 (for his work…
The Nobel laureate and pioneering behavioral economist spars with Steve over what makes a nudge a nudge, and admits that even economists have plenty of blind spots….
…1994-1995 2005-2006 12 Golden State 2007-2008 2011-2012 5 Sacramento 1986-1987 1994-1995 9 Sacramento 2006-2007 2011-2012 6 LA Clippers 1997-1998 2004-2005 8 LA Clippers 1984-1985 1990-1991 7 LA Clippers 2006-2007 2010-2011…
…Minutes WP48 2011-12 Wins Produced 2011-12 WP48 2012-13 Wins Produced 2012-13 Difference between Column 7 & Column 5 Chris Paul PG 1162 0.324 7.8 0.374 9.1 1.0 Blake Griffin PF…
How do kids learn about money? What’s the big problem with education? And who made Raiders of the Lost Ark?…
…before about the?trove of name statistics that can be unearthed with an Alpha search.) Now if you have a favorite regression result, you can create a pretty prediction widget and…
Photo: markn3tel OK, so Newt Gingrich’s senior staff have quit. But Newt’s not the news. At least according to the political prediction markets. The real news is that Texas Governor…
Also: would you take a confirmation-bias vaccine?…
Why are humans so eager for magic-bullet solutions? Can you explain how a pen works? And how does Angela feel about being forever branded “the grit lady”?…
Dubner and Levitt field your queries in this latest installment of our FREAK-quently Asked Questions….
The left and the right blame each other for pretty much everything, including slanted media coverage. Can they both be right?
Is it enough to toss a soda can in the recycling? Why is Maria obsessed with Nobel Prize lectures? And wait — is that a news alert or a tiger?…
Why would a successful person feel the need to stick it to the little guy? Is Angela a name-dropper? And why do rappers grab their crotches?
…on July 31, 2011: 40% (It was 65% a month ago) – Congress to approve increase in U.S. debt ceiling before midnight Aug. 31, 2011: 75% (It was 85% a…
The IMF profiles psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who was awarded a Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002 for his contributions to behavioral economics. The article discusses Kahneman’s childhood in Nazi-occupied Paris,…
