Predicting the Nobel Prize
…listen to our Freakonomics Radio podcast, “The Folly of Predictions,” to find out where we stand on the whole notion of predictions. So Freakonomics readers, who are you betting on?…
Sarah Stein Greenberg runs Stanford’s d.school, which teaches design as a mode of problem solving. She and Steve talk about what makes her field different from other academic disciplines, how…
Everyone agrees that massive deforestation is an environmental disaster. But most of the standard solutions — scolding the Brazilians, invoking universal morality — ignore the one solution that might actually…
Everyone agrees that massive deforestation is an environmental disaster. But most of the standard solutions — scolding the Brazilians, invoking universal morality — ignore the one solution that might actually…
…listen to our Freakonomics Radio podcast, “The Folly of Predictions,” to find out where we stand on the whole notion of predictions. So Freakonomics readers, who are you betting on?…
Harvard economist Raj Chetty uses tax data to study inequality, kid success, and social mobility. He explains why you should be careful when choosing your grade school teachers — and…
In our latest podcast, “The Folly of Prediction,” we poke fun at the whole notion of forecasting. The basic gist is: whether it’s Romanian witches or Wall Street quant wizards,…
Our latest Freakonomics Radio podcast, “The Folly of Prediction,” is built around the premise that humans love to predict the future, but are generally terrible at it. (You can download/subscribe…
He’s the C.E.O. of the United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA), which, under his charge, exposed the most celebrated American cyclist as a cheater. And Steve’s been studying cheaters for the…
The junior U.S. Senator from New Jersey thinks bipartisanship is right around the corner. Is he just an idealistic newbie or does he see a way forward that everyone else…
The documentary filmmaker, known for The Civil War, Jazz, and Baseball, turns his attention to the Holocaust, and asks what we can learn from the evils of the past….
What’s the best way to carry out random acts of kindness? What’s wrong with making an “Irish exit”? And why is Mike secretly buying lottery tickets?…
…a graduate student at MIT, I put a prediction in one of my early papers. My mentor Jim Poterba made me take it out. “Nothing good ever comes of predictions,”…
I’d go long on the following: Mark Oppenheimer, who writes the “Beliefs” column about religion for The New York Times, and who is a frequent writer for Slate and The…
Vice President Joe Biden, quoted in the Times a few days ago: “The day after the election, there will be a Democratic majority in the House and a Democratic majority…
It’s not quite Minority Report, but the L.A. Times reports that the LAPD is working with UCLA mathematicians to pursue a sophisticated form of predictive policing. In the not-too-distant future,…
…4:19 in the morning. It was gody22 (who is unknown to me) who pushed Peter up so high. The auction itself is a kind of prediction market.? Very crudely, if…
Are betting markets more accurate than polls? What kind of chaos would a second Trump term bring? And is U.S. democracy really in danger, or just “sputtering on”? (Part two…
More than two decades ago, Adam Riess’s Nobel Prize-winning work fundamentally changed our understanding of the universe. His new work is reshaping cosmology for a second time….
…economics, Smeal College of Business, and Andrew Kleit, professor of energy and environmental economics, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences. For more details on the weather predictions markets, visit lema.smeal.psu.edu/prediction….
How using peer pressure — and good, old-fashioned shame — can push people to do the right thing.
Just beneath the surface of the global economy, there is a hidden layer of dealmakers for whom war, chaos, and sanctions can be a great business opportunity. Javier Blas and…
Just beneath the surface of the global economy, there is a hidden layer of dealmakers for whom war, chaos, and sanctions can be a great business opportunity. Javier Blas and…
…33% 19% (Gingrich) ARG – Jan. 11-17 Florida 30% 16% (Gingrich) ARG – Jan. 4-9 Illinois 33% 24% (McCain) ARG – Jan. 11-14 Michigan 34% 24% (McCain) ARG – Jan….
Google researcher Blaise Agüera y Arcas spends his work days developing artificial intelligence models and his free time conducting surveys for fun. He tells Steve how he designed an algorithm…
…like my life back” and Christine O’Donnell‘s “I’m not a witch.” I would welcome suggestions of notable quotations from 2011, particularly ones from politics or popular culture or entertainment or…
…Christine O’Donnell‘s “I’m not a witch.” I would welcome suggestions of notable quotations from 2011, particularly ones from politics or popular culture or entertainment or sports or business or technology….
…of $125.9 million, while the Tampa Bay Rays had the lowest payroll in baseball, spending only $34.4 million. In 2011, the Yankees spent nearly $203 million on players. Meanwhile, Tampa…
Our latest Freakonomics Radio podcast is called “Would You Let a Coin Toss Decide Your Future?”…
Distractions are everywhere — including in the operating room. So, what happens if a surgeon loses focus? A tap dancer, a health researcher, and a surgeon help Bapu Jena find…
Some of the biggest names in behavioral science stand accused of faking their results. Last year, an astonishing 10,000 research papers were retracted. We talk to whistleblowers, reformers, and a…
