Sign Up for a Prediction Tournament
…Expert Political Judgment; his co-PIs are Barb Mellers and Don Moore, with an advisory board that includes Daniel Kahneman, Robert Jervis, Scott Armstrong, Michael Mauboussin, Carl Spetzler and Justin Wolfers….
…Expert Political Judgment; his co-PIs are Barb Mellers and Don Moore, with an advisory board that includes Daniel Kahneman, Robert Jervis, Scott Armstrong, Michael Mauboussin, Carl Spetzler and Justin Wolfers….
…research team includes Barb Mellers and Don Moore, with an advisory board of Daniel Kahneman, Robert Jervis, Scott Armstrong, Michael Mauboussin, Carl Spetzler and Justin Wolfers. The criteria for selection…
…have to think that his framing skills would be admired by Messrs. Tversky, Kahneman, and Thaler. If you’re looking for a somewhat headier argument about redistribution, you could try here….
…Kahneman; I am a very lucky fellow.) For now, I just wanted to share one brief bit in a section about how Prohibition hurt our food development because alcohol sales…
Danny Kahneman‘s Thinking, Fast and Slow (read his blog Q&A here) named a Times book of the year. Congrats! Is “big data” really ready for primetime? An economist (Laurence Kotlikoff)…
…Kahneman calls being “blind to our blindness” — that is, how our biases lead us to form conclusions that we think are rational but in fact are merely extensions of…
…sidewalk, smoking cigarettes. Most powerfully (and humbling), I think of behaviorist-king Danny Kahneman‘s admissions that he himself falls prey to the planning fallacy and other behavioral missteps. Who else can…
…to bottom and only use minor manipulations ( something like inside info on an injury). The question implies the use of intuition compared to the model. Daniel Kahneman refers to…
…see immediately… And Shane L pointed out that: The Romans had difficulty repealing the grain dole, once the people got used to it. Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow said…
…greater lengths to avoid losses than they will to experience the equivalent gain. (Danny Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow , Amos Tversky, and Dick Thaler, co-author of Nudge,…
…less about the work of Kahneman and Tversky, as he was the earliest (and pretty much only) economist interested in harnessing the power of their decision-making research. Without Thaler, there…
Also: why do we habituate to life’s greatest pleasures?
Also: Do you spend more time thinking about the past, the present, or the future?
Humans have a built-in “negativity bias,” which means we give bad news much more power than good. Would the Covid-19 crisis be an opportune time to reverse this tendency?
In just a few weeks, the novel coronavirus has undone a century’s worth of our economic and social habits. What consequences will this have on our future — and is…
Humans, it has long been thought, are the only animal to engage in economic activity. But what if we’ve had it exactly backward?
Celiac disease is thought to affect roughly one percent of the population. The good news: it can be treated by quitting gluten. The bad news: many celiac patients haven’t been…
Stephen Dubner’s conversation with the founder and longtime C.E.O. of Bridgewater Associates, recorded for the Freakonomics Radio series “The Secret Life of a C.E.O.”…
Humans, it has long been thought, are the only animal to engage in economic activity. But what if we’ve had it exactly backward?…
Experts and pundits are notoriously bad at forecasting, in part because they aren’t punished for bad predictions. Also, they tend to be deeply unscientific. The psychologist Philip Tetlock is finally…
America’s favorite statistical guru answers our FREAK-quently Asked Questions, and more.
It’s impossible to say for sure, but the Lebanese do remarkably well. Why?
Also: how did Angela do with her no-sugar challenge?…
He’s the C.E.O. of the United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA), which, under his charge, exposed the most celebrated American cyclist as a cheater. And Steve’s been studying cheaters for the…
Also: Is short-sightedness part of human nature?…
He’s a Harvard physician and economist who just started a third job: host of the new podcast Freakonomics, M.D. He’s also Steve’s former student. The two discuss why medicine should…
In a conversation fresh from the Freakonomics Radio Network’s podcast laboratory, Michèle Flournoy (one of the highest-ranking women in Defense Department history) speaks with Cecil Haney (one of the U.S….
