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Search Results for: thaler/2011/06/30/the-folly-of-prediction-full-transcript

Netflix $1 million prize

…they liked or disliked other movies. We use those predictions to make personal movie recommendations based on each customer’s unique tastes. And while Cinematch is doing pretty well, it can…



Pornography and rape

…rape. He then does a nice thing in the paper, going beyond just this one prediction to test other hypotheses, like do crimes other than rape fall with the internet…



Netflix Prize Update

A few months ago Netflix offered a million dollar prize to anyone who could improve their prediction algorithm 10%. Judging from the progress made so far (a 5% improvement and…



Which Medical Practice Will Be Discredited Next?

…answer: “What other medical orthodoxies might join hormone replacement therapy and stenting on the ever-growing list of discredited interventions?” I have one prediction: late-stage chemotherapy for many types of cancer….



What Do Real Thugs Think of The Wire?

…that the Bunk is too good not to be hiding something. 2. Prediction No. 1: McNulty and the Bunk will split. The observation regarding Bunk’s detective work led to a…



Saving the World Through Distributed Computing

…evidence of intelligent signals from space. Other projects include movements for healthcare in Africa, climate prediction models, and research seeking cures for muscular dystrophy, cancer and AIDS. So if you’ve…



The FREAKest Links: Two’s A Crowd Edition

…Informed Reader blog.) Tim Harford, the Undercover Economist, analyzes on Slate whether political prediction markets (a subject we’ve touched on often) can be rigged by a candidate (or a rival)…



Here Comes Harry!

prediction market lists the hero’s survival at 90% as of 12:37 AM, EDT. Reuters profiles Mugglenet, a virtual Potter-ized world created by then-12-year-old fan Emerson Spartz that now receives up…



Lessons From the Bridge Collapse in Minneapolis?

…would mention how he thought a bridge over the Mississippi was going to collapse. We would be calling him Nostradamus today, except that his doomsday prediction was about a different…




Will This Weed Really ‘Save Humanity’?

…time that optimistic news about a biofuel “that might help save the planet” appeared on this blog. Maybe it is time for the prediction market at PopSci.com to add a…




An Earthquake Hits Amazon’s Sales Ranking

…or 8 months, we’ve floated around the 30 to 40 range. When something significant happened — a TV appearance, e.g. — there might be a bump, but it wasn’t usually…




FREAK-TV: Was Alan Greenspan Just Lucky?

…videos can reside right here in a blog post. Our latest video has Levitt talking about how hard it is for economists to make macroeconomic predictions. I hope everyone in…



The FREAK-est Links

How well has the Radiohead experiment fared? (Earlier) Employers adopting personality tests to avoid “hiring jerks”. A “How To” for corporate prediction markets. Are we more likely to vote for…



Who Cares About Economists?

…and there’s been a virtual flood of press coverage: 1. A report on a new paper about Google’s internal prediction markets (which Justin Wolfers, one of its authors, previewed here);…



The FREAK-est Links

Methane-free kangaroo gas could slow global warming. (Earlier) Weather prediction traditionalists face off against modernists. Honda introduces hydrogen-fueled car. (Earlier) Read newspapers on the Web? That could make you an…



What Do Real Thugs Think of The Wire? Part Two

…But another prediction emerged: that Omar would dispose of Marlo. “That little f—-t is going to win,” Orlando said assuredly. “You watch: he’ll knock Marlo out, take the body to…





What Do Real Thugs Think of The Wire? Part Four

…got that look,” Tony-T said, “like he’s ready to climb. But you know the saying, ‘the higher you climb, the harder you fall.’” Tony-T offered a prediction: the reporter would…




R U Studying?

…excelling in school cool, or at least less stigmatizing than it otherwise seems to be in many schools. My prediction: it will not be long before a bunch of NYC…



How Late Will You Really Be?

…date and site come back with predictions about the probability of cancellation and delay for different airlines serving the route. For example, here are the results for a trip from…



Fine Weather for Insurers

…the 2007 season, just as they had in 2006. But both of those dire predictions turned out to be high of the mark — 2006 and 2007 turned out to…




Elections, Hot Air, and Gas

…who thinks this is a good idea, then please add a link in the comments. My prediction: Perhaps some hot air, but we won’t find any economist willing to support…



Where in the World Is Leon Powe?

…winning. (Sorry, Mike and Danny.) I’m still feeling good about that prediction — although maybe, if the Celtics would un-bury Leon Powe from the bench, I might get proven wrong….



Wisdom of Crowds: Marathon Edition

prediction: The median estimate will be closer than 85 percent of the individual guesses. Oh, and if you happen to be in Stockholm and see a rather tired looking Aussie…