More Predictions That Didn't Come True
(Photo: Julian Povey) Thank you, Politico (the Magazine), for taking a look back at various predictions for 2013 to see how they worked out. In our “Folly of Prediction” podcast,…
From domestic abusers to former child soldiers, there is increasing evidence that behavioral therapy can turn them around.
(Photo: Julian Povey) Thank you, Politico (the Magazine), for taking a look back at various predictions for 2013 to see how they worked out. In our “Folly of Prediction” podcast,…
Photo: fishhawk We’ve been having some fun recently at the expense of people who like to predict things. In our hour-long Freakonomics Radio episode “The Folly of Prediction” — which…
When a doctor’s shift ends, or a physician retires, are patients left in the lurch? Bapu Jena looks at the challenge of managing medical transitions….
What your disgust level says about your politics, how Napoleon influenced opera, why New York City’s subways may finally run on time, and more. Five compelling guests tell Stephen Dubner,…
…Moorhead, Minnesota which is right across the state line): Former Realtor ordered to pay fine for attempted theft By Amy Dalrymple The Forum – 06/10/2005 A former real estate agent…
That is the topic of an article Levitt and I wrote for Play, a new sports magazine being birthed this Sunday by The New York Times. The issue will probably…
It’s Freakonomics that I’m referring to. In what way is it so weird? Well, leaving aside any discussions of its content, consider this strange fact: in the past 10 years…
Our upcoming “Freakonomics” column in The New York Times Magazine is about how people hate the I.R.S. for the wrong reasons. The article should be available online here by late…
The April “Freakonomics” column in The New York Times Magazine will address –you guessed it– taxes. It’s about how people hate the I.R.S. for the wrong reasons and will run…
For the record, I like Wikipedia just fine, as long as people understand what it is and what it isn’t. What it is: a useful and engaging enterprise in user-generated…
Ian Ayres is an economist and lawyer at Yale and the author of Super Crunchers, which we excerpted here. He has agreed to write occasional guest posts on our blog,…
Listen to an NBA coach during a game and you will often hear him scream something like the following: “You have to share the ball.” “Start looking for your teammates.”…
Moon Duchin is a math professor at Cornell University whose theoretical work has practical applications for voting and democracy. Why is striving for fair elections so difficult?…
In just a few weeks, the novel coronavirus has undone a century’s worth of our economic and social habits. What consequences will this have on our future — and is…
A conversation with former Major League Baseball player and current E.S.P.N. analyst Mark Teixeira, recorded for the Freakonomics Radio series “The Hidden Side of Sports.”…
Distractions are everywhere — including in the operating room. So, what happens if a surgeon loses focus? A tap dancer, a health researcher, and a surgeon help Bapu Jena find…
Giving up can be painful. That’s why we need to talk about it. Today: stories about glitchy apps, leaky paint cans, broken sculptures — and a quest for the perfect…
Giving up can be painful. That’s why we need to talk about it. Today: stories about glitchy apps, leaky paint cans, broken sculptures — and a quest for the perfect…
It’s hard enough to save for a house, tuition, or retirement. So why are we willing to pay big fees for subpar investment returns? Enter the low-cost index fund. The…
Photo: iStockphoto It’s time for the annual Name of the Year contest. The 2008 winner, Destiny Frankenstein, is still our favorite, but there are some strong contestants this year. Among…
…Produced (calculation) in 2011-12 (numbers from The NBA Geek). Thunder 2011-12 Games Played Minutes Played Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48) Wins Produced Kevin Durant 66 2546 0.226 11.97 James…
…prediction markets, and his own econometric model for forecasting elections. The Strömberg model is, in my view, the leading quantitative election-forecasting model — both parsimonious and sophisticated. By building up…
…managed with a more effective use of technology by the Treasury.” Prediction: tax cheating will increase significantly during the Obama years. Prescription: make the I.R.S. more digital, and eliminate the…
…in a blue-to-red direction. But predictions aren’t elections; and even if the predictions hold true, what happens next? So we checked in with some clever people who care a lot…
Photo: Peter Batty Dubner and I have been thinking a lot these days about pundits who make predictions. The incentives surrounding predictions are completely skewed. If I make a wild…
We recently solicited your questions for Nate Silver regarding his new book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t. Not too surprisingly, a…
How likely is it that this conversation is happening in more than one universe? Should we worry more about Covid or about nuclear war? Is economics a form of “intellectual…
Guest host Adam Davidson looks at what might happen to your job in a world of human-level artificial intelligence, and asks when it might be time to worry that the…
…too much weight to smaller prediction market contracts? It’s worth acknowledging that in the prediction-market world, an individual betting a few hundred dollars could raise the “likelihood” of an upcoming…
