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Episode 117

Nate Silver Says We’re Bad at Making Predictions

Data scientist Nate Silver gained attention for his election predictions. But even the best prognosticators get it wrong sometimes. He talks to Steve about making good decisions with data, why…


More Predictions That Didn't Come True

…we discussed how the incentives to predict are skewed. Big, bold predictions that turn out to be true are handsomely rewarded; but predictions that turn out to be false are…



Should Bad Predictions Be Punished?

Government corn predictions are based on the work of people like Phil Friedrichs, gathering data in a corn field in Hiawatha, Kansas. (Photo: Stephen Koranda) What do Wall Street forecasters…



Are Predictions Getting Better?

predictions. Making predictions within the intelligence community, for example, is a different game than betting on basketball: In March Madness, everyone has access to the same information, at least theoretically….



Episode 41

The Folly of Prediction

Human beings love to predict the future, but we’re quite terrible at it. So how about punishing all those bad predictions?

Episode 41

The Folly of Prediction (Replay)

Human beings love to predict the future, but we’re quite terrible at it. So how about punishing all those bad predictions?


What's Wrong With Punishing Bad Predictions?

…incentives to make bold predictions and weak penalties for bold predictions don’t come true. For example: I could write here today that the Dow will reach 35,000 by the end…



More Predictions, From Bad to Worse

…future. Fact: Because the incentives to predict are quite imperfect — bad predictions are rarely punished — this situation is unlikely to change. A couple of recent cases in point:…




Annual Kentucky Derby Predictions

…years, my computer model has some strong predictions for this year’s Derby. The two horses I like best from a betting perspective (i.e. the ones I think actually have a…








Episode 233

How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future

Experts and pundits are notoriously bad at forecasting, in part because they aren’t punished for bad predictions. Also, they tend to be deeply unscientific. The psychologist Philip Tetlock is finally…


How Valid Are T.V. Weather Forecasts?

…while we were at it, we decided to also document each station’s weather predictions and compare them to the actual results to see if one station was better than the…







Episode 53

What’s the Secret to Making a Great Prediction?

Also: How do you recover from a bad day?…

What’s the Best Way to Predict American Idol?

…if they gave actual probabilities of winning/losing. Levitt wrote earlier about making money by betting on contestants using DialIdol. And their predictions have continued to be surprisingly accurate. This season…



Paying for "Transparently Useless Advice"

…coin toss fair. Hence, the prediction was essentially useless. However, participants were happy to pay for the predictions — particularly if the predictions in the earlier rounds had been correct….



Betting the Weather

…entirety. The market’s predictions have been off by “only 6.6 percent,” which doesn’t sound so great to me, but I guess that says something about the difficulty of predicting the…



My Annual Kentucky Derby Picks

…predict nothing. The nice thing about making so few predictions is that by the time next year’s predictions roll around, no one can remember how last year’s predictions turned out….



An Economic Prediction That Actually Came True

Image: cambodia4kidsorg Economists are notorious for making bad predictions. There are endless examples, but the first one that comes to mind is a book written by economist Kevin Hassett and…