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Search Results for: Daniel Kahneman/2011/06/30/the-folly-of-prediction-full-transcript

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Episode 23

Is the Placebo Effect for Real?

In Latin, the word “placebo” means “I shall please.” In the medical world, placebos mean something … well, a little different. Bapu Jena walks us through the thorny world of…

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Episode 249

The Longest Long Shot

When the uncelebrated Leicester City Football Club won the English Premier League, it wasn’t just the biggest underdog story in recent history. It was a sign of changing economics —…

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Episode 144

Feeling Sound and Hearing Color

David Eagleman is a Stanford neuroscientist, C.E.O., television host, and founder of the Possibilianism movement. He and Steve talk about how wrists can substitute for ears, why we dream, and…

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Episode 35

Are More Expensive Hospitals Better?

For lots of things, price is an indicator of quality. But what about in health care? Bapu Jena gets some clues from Steve Levitt’s wine tasting experiment, and looks at…

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Episode 183

Tell Me Something I Don’t Know

The debut of a live game show from Freakonomics Radio, with judges Malcolm Gladwell, Ana Gasteyer, and David Paterson….

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Episode 7

What Happens to Patients When Thousands of Cardiologists Leave Town?

This week, Bapu Jena presents some hot-off-the-presses research exploring the relationship between how many patients a doctor sees, and how well those patients do. Plus, the surprising impact of annual…

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Episode 140

How to Breathe Better

Bestselling author James Nestor believes that we can improve our lives by changing the way we breathe. He’s persuasive enough to get Steve taping his mouth shut at night. He…


A Prophet Who Dares Admit the Limits of Prophecy

…about. We’re currently finishing up an hour-long radio program called “The Folly of Prediction,” and I have to say that it was bracingly refreshing to read this paragraph and the…



Freakonomics Radio Live in St. Paul, Minn. This Week

…on public radio. The titles: “The Church of ‘Scionology,’” “An Economist’s Guide to Parenting,” “The Folly of Prediction,” “The Suicide Paradox,” and “The Upside of Quitting.” If you live within…



Maybe Our Tastes Don't Calcify As We Age?

I had an interesting exchange recently while interviewing Tim Westergren, co-founder of the (just-public) internet radio company Pandora for our Freakonomics Radio hour called “The Folly of Prediction.” (We argue…




Are Predictions Getting Better?

If you’re the kind of person who cares about “The Folly of Prediction” and The Signal and the Noise, you may want to read Amy Zegart‘s Foreign Policy piece about…



More Predictions, From Bad to Worse

(Photo: Josh McGinn) Our “Folly of Prediction” podcast made these basic points: Fact: Human beings love to predict the future. Fact: Human beings are not very good at predicting the…




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Episode 41

Dr. Bapu Jena on Why Freakonomics Is the Best Medicine

He’s a Harvard physician and economist who just started a third job: host of the new podcast Freakonomics, M.D. He’s also Steve’s former student. The two discuss why medicine should…

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Episode 55

This Vaccine Lottery Seemed Like a Great Idea. Why Didn’t it Work?

Behavioral economists say “regret lotteries” are powerful motivational tools. When Philadelphia tried one in 2021, the results were disappointing. Bapu looks at how incentives can backfire — and what we…

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Episode 202

How Many Doctors Does It Take to Start a Healthcare Revolution?

The practice of medicine has been subsumed by the business of medicine. This is great news for healthcare shareholders — and bad news for pretty much everyone else.


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Episode 144

What Should Be the Eighth Deadly Sin?

We asked you to nominate the worst sins of the modern age. Which one do Stephen and Angela think belongs on the list? And which does Angie struggle with the…

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Episode 399

Honey, I Grew the Economy

Innovation experts have long overlooked where a lot of innovation actually happens. The personal computer, the mountain bike, the artificial pancreas — none of these came from some big R&D…

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Episode 266

Trust Me (Replay)

Societies where people trust one another are healthier and wealthier. In the U.S. (and the U.K. and elsewhere), social trust has been falling for decades — in part because our…

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Episode 200

What’s the Difference Between Empathy and Sympathy?

Can you ever really know how another person feels? What’s the best way to support a grieving person? And why doesn’t Hallmark sell empathy cards?

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Episode 417

Reasons to Be Cheerful

Humans have a built-in “negativity bias,” which means we give bad news much more power than good. Would the Covid-19 crisis be an opportune time to reverse this tendency?

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Episode 93

Annie Duke Thinks You Should Quit

Former professional poker player Annie Duke has a new book on Steve’s favorite subject: quitting. They talk about why quitting is so hard, how to do it sooner, and why…

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What Makes Chuck Skinny?

…doesn’t feel like work.” But Barkley’s description provides some insight about what’s really motivating his weight loss. From the transcript, I’m guessing that the group weigh-in is not a large…