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Search Results for: Daniel Kahneman/2011/06/30/the-folly-of-prediction-full-transcript

The Priesthood

The IMF profiles psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who was awarded a Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002 for his contributions to behavioral economics. The article discusses Kahneman’s childhood in Nazi-occupied Paris,…




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Episode 175

Why Is Astrology So Popular?

Why does your horoscope seem so accurate? Is it possible to believe and not believe in something at the same time? And is Mike a classic Gemini?…

What's Wrong With Punishing Bad Predictions?

…government officials are being held personally accountable for the failure to adequately predict the scale of a natural disaster. If you ever heard our “Folly of Prediction” podcast, you might…



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Episode 555

New Technologies Always Scare Us. Is A.I. Any Different?

Guest host Adam Davidson looks at what might happen to your job in a world of human-level artificial intelligence, and asks when it might be time to worry that the…

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Episode 149

Is It Harder to Make Friends as an Adult? (Replay)

How do friendships change as we get older? Should you join a bowling league? And also: how does a cook become a chef?…

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Episode 234

Do Boycotts Work?

The Montgomery Bus Boycott, the South African divestment campaign, Chick-fil-A! Almost anyone can launch a boycott, and the media loves to cover them. But do boycotts actually produce the change…

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Episode 468

Nap Time for Everyone!

The benefits of sleep are by now well established, and yet many people don’t get enough. A new study suggests we should channel our inner toddler and get 30 minutes…

A bump in the road for prediction markets

My friends over at Tradesports are catching some heat. Tradesports is an online prediction market that allows you to make bets on all sorts of unusual outcomes. A controversy is…




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Episode 25

Would You Rather See a Computer or a Doctor?

Well, which is better at predicting your risk of having a heart attack? Bapu Jena explores the promise — and perils — of artificial intelligence in medicine….

A New Prediction Market for the Masses

For those of you who love prediction markets (a variety of which we’ve written about in the past), there’s a new site that looks to be as vast, inclusive, and…




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Episode 341

Why We Choke Under Pressure (and How Not To)

It happens to just about everyone, whether you’re going for Olympic gold or giving a wedding toast. We hear from psychologists, economists, and the golfer who some say committed the…

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Episode 300

Why Don’t We All Speak the Same Language?

There are 7,000 languages spoken on Earth. What are the costs — and benefits — of our modern-day Tower of Babel? (Part 3 of the “Earth 2.0” series.)…

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Episode 171

Where Is the Line Between Exaggeration and Lying?

Why do we use “literally” figuratively? Does conveying an “emotional truth” justify making things up? And are Angela’s kids really starving or just hungry?…

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Episode 569

Do You Need Closure?

In a special episode of No Stupid Questions, Angela Duckworth and Mike Maughan talk about unfinished tasks, recurring arguments, and Irish goodbyes….

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Episode 204

Nate Silver Says: “Everyone Is Kind of Weird”

America’s favorite statistical guru answers our FREAK-quently Asked Questions, and more.

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Episode 626

Ten Myths About the U.S. Tax System

Nearly everything that politicians say about taxes is at least half a lie. They are also dishonest when it comes to the national debt. Stephen Dubner finds one of the…

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Episode 181

What’s So Great About Meritocracy?

Do you really deserve the credit for your accomplishments? Should college admissions be determined by lottery? And how did Mike’s contribution to a charity auction change his life?…

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Episode 325

How to Train Your Dragon Child

Every 12 years, there’s a spike in births among certain communities across the globe, including the U.S. Why? Because the Year of the Dragon, according to Chinese folk belief, confers…

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Episode 113

How Can You Improve Your Mental Endurance?

Why do some activities tire your brain more than others? How exhausting is poverty? And could most of the world’s problems be solved with a sandwich?…


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Episode 409

The Side Effects of Social Distancing

In just a few weeks, the novel coronavirus has undone a century’s worth of our economic and social habits. What consequences will this have on our future — and is…

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Episode 304

What Are the Secrets of the German Economy — and Should We Steal Them?

Smart government policies, good industrial relations, and high-end products have helped German manufacturing beat back the threats of globalization.

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Episode 519

Has Globalization Failed?

It was supposed to boost prosperity and democracy at the same time. What really happened? According to the legal scholar Anthea Roberts, it depends which story you believe….

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Episode 365

Not Just Another Labor Force

If you think talent and hard work give top athletes all the leverage to succeed, think again. As employees in the Sports-Industrial Complex, they’ve got a tight earnings window, a…

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Episode 198

The Maddest Men of All

Advertisers have always been adept at manipulating our emotions. Now they’re using behavioral economics to get even better.

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Episode 192

Should You Get Out of Your Comfort Zone?

What do the most creative people have in common? How open-minded are you, really? And what’s wrong with ordering eggs Benedict? Take the Big Five inventory: freakonomics.com/bigfive…

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Episode 335

Does Doing Good Give You License to Be Bad?

Corporate Social Responsibility programs can attract better job applicants who’ll work for less money. But they also encourage employees to misbehave. Don’t laugh — you too probably engage in “moral…