Paying for "Transparently Useless Advice"
…coin toss fair. Hence, the prediction was essentially useless. However, participants were happy to pay for the predictions — particularly if the predictions in the earlier rounds had been correct….
Also: is it better to be right or “not wrong”?…
They used to be the N.F.L.’s biggest stars, with paychecks to match. Now their salaries are near the bottom, and their careers are shorter than ever. We speak with an…
…coin toss fair. Hence, the prediction was essentially useless. However, participants were happy to pay for the predictions — particularly if the predictions in the earlier rounds had been correct….
…I have only read chunks so far but can already recommend it. (I would like to think his research included listening to our radio hour “The Folly of Prediction,” but…
…listen to our Freakonomics Radio podcast, “The Folly of Predictions,” to find out where we stand on the whole notion of predictions. So Freakonomics readers, who are you betting on?…
In a special episode of No Stupid Questions, Angela Duckworth and Mike Maughan talk about unfinished tasks, recurring arguments, and Irish goodbyes….
Behavioral economists say “regret lotteries” are powerful motivational tools. When Philadelphia tried one in 2021, the results were disappointing. Bapu looks at how incentives can backfire — and what we…
In our latest podcast, “The Folly of Prediction,” we poke fun at the whole notion of forecasting. The basic gist is: whether it’s Romanian witches or Wall Street quant wizards,…
Our latest Freakonomics Radio podcast, “The Folly of Prediction,” is built around the premise that humans love to predict the future, but are generally terrible at it. (You can download/subscribe…
The junior U.S. Senator from New Jersey thinks bipartisanship is right around the corner. Is he just an idealistic newbie or does he see a way forward that everyone else…
…a graduate student at MIT, I put a prediction in one of my early papers. My mentor Jim Poterba made me take it out. “Nothing good ever comes of predictions,”…
I’d go long on the following: Mark Oppenheimer, who writes the “Beliefs” column about religion for The New York Times, and who is a frequent writer for Slate and The…
Vice President Joe Biden, quoted in the Times a few days ago: “The day after the election, there will be a Democratic majority in the House and a Democratic majority…
It’s not quite Minority Report, but the L.A. Times reports that the LAPD is working with UCLA mathematicians to pursue a sophisticated form of predictive policing. In the not-too-distant future,…
…4:19 in the morning. It was gody22 (who is unknown to me) who pushed Peter up so high. The auction itself is a kind of prediction market.? Very crudely, if…
Are betting markets more accurate than polls? What kind of chaos would a second Trump term bring? And is U.S. democracy really in danger, or just “sputtering on”? (Part two…
More than two decades ago, Adam Riess’s Nobel Prize-winning work fundamentally changed our understanding of the universe. His new work is reshaping cosmology for a second time….
…economics, Smeal College of Business, and Andrew Kleit, professor of energy and environmental economics, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences. For more details on the weather predictions markets, visit lema.smeal.psu.edu/prediction….
How using peer pressure — and good, old-fashioned shame — can push people to do the right thing.
…33% 19% (Gingrich) ARG – Jan. 11-17 Florida 30% 16% (Gingrich) ARG – Jan. 4-9 Illinois 33% 24% (McCain) ARG – Jan. 11-14 Michigan 34% 24% (McCain) ARG – Jan….
Sarah Stein Greenberg runs Stanford’s d.school, which teaches design as a mode of problem solving. She and Steve talk about what makes her field different from other academic disciplines, how…
…like my life back” and Christine O’Donnell‘s “I’m not a witch.” I would welcome suggestions of notable quotations from 2011, particularly ones from politics or popular culture or entertainment or…
…Christine O’Donnell‘s “I’m not a witch.” I would welcome suggestions of notable quotations from 2011, particularly ones from politics or popular culture or entertainment or sports or business or technology….
…of $125.9 million, while the Tampa Bay Rays had the lowest payroll in baseball, spending only $34.4 million. In 2011, the Yankees spent nearly $203 million on players. Meanwhile, Tampa…
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz combs through mountains of information to find advice for everyday life….
Also: Is short-sightedness part of human nature?…
Just a few decades ago, more than 90 percent of 30-year-olds earned more than their parents had earned at the same age. Now it’s only about 50 percent. What happened…
It’s hard enough to save for a house, tuition or retirement. So why are we willing to pay big fees for subpar investment returns? Enter the low-cost index fund. The…
From baseball card conventions to Walmart, John List has always used field experiments to say revolutionary things about economics. He explains the value of an apology, why scaling shouldn’t be…
From domestic abusers to former child soldiers, there is increasing evidence that behavioral therapy can turn them around.
