Search the Site

Search Results for: thaler/2011/09/14/new-freakonomics-radio-podcast-the-folly-of-prediction



This Year’s Kentucky Derby Picks

Photo: Peter Batty Dubner and I have been thinking a lot these days about pundits who make predictions. The incentives surrounding predictions are completely skewed. If I make a wild…




Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 51

Max Tegmark on Why Treating Humanity Like a Child Will Save Us All

How likely is it that this conversation is happening in more than one universe? Should we worry more about Covid or about nuclear war? Is economics a form of “intellectual…

Is Too Much Attention Paid to Small InTrade Contracts?

…too much weight to smaller prediction market contracts? It’s worth acknowledging that in the prediction-market world, an individual betting a few hundred dollars could raise the “likelihood” of an upcoming…



Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 635

Can a Museum Be the Conscience of a Nation?

Nicholas Cullinan, the new director of the British Museum, seems to think so. “I’m not afraid of the past,” he says — which means talking about looted objects, the basement…

Yet More News on “Deal or No Deal”

…University in Rotterdam, and Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago. “There is no doubt that these are real people making real choices for high stakes, and we rarely get…



Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 329

The Invisible Paw (Replay)

Humans, it has long been thought, are the only animal to engage in economic activity. But what if we’ve had it exactly backward?

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 220

“I Don’t Know What You’ve Done With My Husband But He’s a Changed Man”

From domestic abusers to former child soldiers, there is increasing evidence that behavioral therapy can turn them around.

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 61

Was Austan Goolsbee’s First Visit to the Oval Office Almost His Last?

The former chairman of the Obama administration’s Council of Economic Advisors tells Steve how improv comedy was a better training ground for teaching than a Ph.D. from M.I.T., and why…

Nudge

…words and labels. My eyes glaze over when people come up with grandiose labels for ideas — especially newly invented ones. So about a year ago when I had lunch…



World Water Day: Nudges for Safe Water

…water, we have some rigorous evidence on what might help. It won’t solve all water problems, everywhere. But the approach should sound familiar to readers of Freakonomics, as it is…




Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 99

Greg Norman Takes On the P.G.A. Tour

…Admire, the formerly top-ranked golfer has become the sport’s most controversial figure. Why has he partnered with the Saudi government — and can his new golf league unseat a monopoly?…




Why Did the NBA Miss On Jeremy Lin?

…at Jeremy Lin’s stats when his college career ended in 2010. Here is what we knew about Lin at that point: Lin was 22 years old, so he was relatively…



Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 344

Who Decides How Much a Life Is Worth?

After every mass shooting or terrorist attack, victims and survivors receive a huge outpouring of support — including a massive pool of compensation money. How should that money be allocated?…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 210

Is It Okay for Restaurants to Racially Profile Their Employees? (Replay)

We seem to have decided that ethnic food tastes better when it’s served by people of that ethnicity (or at least something close). Does this make sense — and is…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 331

Why the Trump Tax Cuts Are Awesome/Terrible (Part 1)

Kevin Hassett, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, explains the thinking behind the controversial new Republican tax package — and why its critics are wrong. (Next week, we’ll hear…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 68

The E.R. Doctor’s Dilemma

Figuring out which patients to hospitalize and which to safely send home can be tricky. Is there a way to make this decision easier for doctors — and get better…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 492

How Did a Hayfield Become One of America’s Hottest Cities?

Frisco used to be just another sleepy bedroom community outside of Dallas. Now it’s got corporate headquarters, billions of investment dollars, and a bunch of Democrats in a place that…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 513

Should Public Transit Be Free? (Update)

It boosts economic opportunity and social mobility. It’s good for the environment. So why do we charge people to use it? The short answer: it’s complicated. Also: We talk to…

Episode image
Follow this show
EXTRA

What It’s Like to Be Steve Levitt’s Daughters (Update)

Steve shows a different side of himself in very personal interviews with his two oldest daughters. Amanda talks about growing up with social anxiety and her decision not to go…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 8

A Playbook for Beating the Next Pandemic

We dig into why Covid-19 caught us so unprepared, and how we can make sure we’re ready for a future public-health crisis, with former F.D.A. director Scott Gottlieb….

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 212

When Do You Become an Adult?

Who decided that we’re fully mature at 18? Should 16-year-olds have the right to vote? And why are young people bringing their parents to job interviews?…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 356

America’s Hidden Duopoly

We all know our political system is “broken” — but what if that’s not true? Some say the Republicans and Democrats constitute a wildly successful industry that has colluded to…

Episode image
Follow this show
Episode 145

Do You Have a Scarcity Mindset or an Abundance Mindset?

Are highly effective people quicker to share credit? What does poverty do to your brain? And how did Stephen’s mother teach him about opportunity costs? Plus: an announcement about the…