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Stephen J. Dubner

The Price of Clean Water

Taking off on Levitt’s recent blog post about pesticides in the water in Indiana, James Altucher at Stockpickr has assembled a Freakonomics portfolio of clean water stocks. He has also blogged about it in more detail at TheStreet.com.

5/15/07

Your Input Needed: Hunting the Black Swan

“Ferreting out antilogics is an exhilarating activity.” Do you agree with the above sentence? If so, you will probably enjoy the writing of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a polymathic gentleman whose new book is called The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Here’s how its dust jacket succinctly describes the thesis: “A black swan is a highly improbable event . . .

5/15/07

The Unpredictability of Baby Names

Because we had a chapter in our book about the socioeconomic impact of baby names, we’ve blogged many times about baby names in the past, including just the other day. One question that rarely arises, however, is this: How possible is it to predict which names will become more popular in time, and which ones will fall? We did make . . .

5/14/07

How Effective Are George Bush’s Tax Cuts? Don’t Ask the Economists

Here’s heartening news for all those who believe that economists not only can’t predict the economic future, but can’t even describe the economic past. Daniel Altman, for his Economic View column for the New York Times, e-mailed the 177 members of the National Bureau of Economic Research who concentrate on economic fluctuations and growth. He asked them a seemingly simple . . .

5/14/07

Mark Twain on the Leisure/Work Divide

We got an e-mail the other day from John Yinger, a professor of economics and public administration at Syracuse University. It went, in part, like this: By coincidence, I read a chapter of “Tom Sawyer” to my 10-year-old son the day your column on leisure time came out. It’s the famous chapter on whitewashing the fence. Here’s how it ends: . . .

5/11/07

Cocaine (the Drink) Banned; Is Opium (the Perfume) Next?

Several months ago, we blogged about a controversy over a high-caffeine drink called Cocaine. Now it has been pulled from shelves nationwide. Its producer, Redux Beverages of Las Vegas, was disappointed — and, based on this quote Redux partner Clegg Ivey gave to the Associated Press, a bit confused: “[W]e intended for Cocaine energy drink to be a legal alternative . . .

5/11/07

O, Vancouver

I am in Vancouver for about 36 hours. Vancouver anytime is pretty great; in springtime, it is even greater. Snowcaps glimpsed between modern skyscrapers; people from everywhere; lots of green. And, of course, that spectacular meeting of mountain and water. A few random observations: 1. There seem to be more coffee shops per square block, including Starbucks, Blenz, and others, . . .

5/10/07

Grand Central Lost & Found

There was a very nice piece in the New York Times the other day about Mike Nolan, the manager of Metro-North Railroad’s lost-and-found department. Via the article: Since joining Metro-North in 1994, Mr. Nolan has applied the analytical skills he honed as a Wall Street analyst to a tracking system that once depended on pen and paper and that in . . .

5/10/07

Levitt as Horse Bettor: Eh.

In addition to its Freakonomics Poker Portfolio, James Altucher at Stockpickr.com has also posted a Freakonomics Horse Racing Portfolio, thus creating indices in honor of two of Steve Levitt‘s greatest passions. FWIW, Levitt’s picks the other day on the Kentucky Derby weren’t terrible. One of the two long shots he liked, Hard Spun, placed and paid $9.80. On the other . . .

5/10/07

A Sentence That Should Strike Fear Into the Heart of Every Doping Cyclist

From an Associated Press report out of Rome: Giro d’Italia champion Ivan Basso admitted involvement in the Spanish doping scandal and is cooperating with sports authorities. It is hard to overestimate the value of a cooperating witness. Think of the damage, e.g., that Sammy Gravano did to John Gotti and the rest of the Gambino crime family. If someone of . . .

5/9/07

Guest Blog: Who’s to Blame for Inaccurate Election Polls?

A few days ago, I blogged about how pre-election polls have historically overstated a minority candidate’s standing, but how that gap seems to be shrinking. In other words, according to the Pew Research Center article I cited, people used to lie to pollsters about their willingness to vote for a minority candidate, but now they do so less often. This . . .

5/9/07

A Gluttony Tax

We’ve blogged before about a pay-what-you-wish coffee shop and pay-what-you-wish downloadable music. Now Luciana Silvestri, a reader from Argentina, writes with news of something different: An all-you-can-eat restaurant with a prix fixe twist. As she explains: A friend has just returned to Argentina from a six-month internship in Chicago and told me about a Japanese restaurant with quite an original . . .

5/9/07

This Blog Apparently Not Worthless After All

Several months ago, I got an e-mail from a money manager in Spain. He’d read a blog post here called “Will the High Price of Oil Make Americans Skinnier,” and decided to start trading (mostly agricultural stocks) based on the ideas mentioned therein. Good luck, I told him. Now my friend James Altucher at Stockpickr.com has had a similar idea, . . .

5/8/07

What’s Al Gore Have in Common With the Ku Klux Klan?

A few nights ago in San Antonio, Al Gore gave his global-warming lecture at the American Institute of Architects’ national convention. “It’s in part a spiritual crisis,” he said. “It’s a crisis of our own self-definition – who we are. Are we creatures destined to destroy our own species? Clearly not.” According to the San Antonio Express-News, Gore was “especially . . .

5/8/07

This Week In Reader E-Mail

Rarely does a reader express his sentiment so cogently as in this case, from one “Fred Peck”: Your article that tries to shed light on Realtors is probably the dumbest and most pointless thing I have ever read. Rogue economists, huh? You idiots sound more like cynical morons that think they know everything. I guess I’m the fool, though. You . . .

5/8/07

In Praise of Tyler Cowen

I’ve been reading an advance copy of Tyler Cowen‘s book Discover Your Inner Economist. Many of you may know Cowen as co-proprietor of the excellent MarginalRevolution blog, which we’ve cited here often. The book is fast, furious, and fun, with great examples of how to apply economic thinking to nontraditional subjects. (My favorite: Cowen’s advice for keeping a meeting short . . .

5/7/07

Have Voters Started to Lie Less About Minority Candidates?

Here’s a really interesting article (albeit a few months old) from the Pew Research Center that concerns a point we’ve touched on before: Minority political candidates tend to do better in pre-election polls than in the actual elections, suggesting that voters want to sound color-blind to pollsters but in fact carry a strong racial preference into the booth. The article . . .

5/7/07

The Joys of Menial Labor

We have a new column in this week’s New York Times Magazine, which is a special issue on the boomer generation. Our piece is called “Laid-Back Labor,” and it actually germinated from a blog post here a few months ago. Here’s one paragraph from the column: Isn’t it puzzling that so many middle-aged Americans are spending so much of their . . .

5/5/07

Vote Your Conscience

Time Out New York is the magazine that people buy when they’re visiting New York and want to know where to go and what to see. (It’s a British import but has been here at least 10 years by now; secret confession: my family and many other New Yorkers use it too, all the time.) This week, T.O.N.Y. is running . . .

5/4/07

Please Welcome the First Editor of Freakonomics.com

As stated here before, this blog was barely meant to be born at all, much less go on for two years. But now we’ve decided to stick around for at least a couple more years — when, if all goes well, we’ll publish our next book. Since we’re going to keep at it, we figured, we might as well try . . .

5/4/07

James Altucher Strikes Again

A few years ago, I was working on a book about the psychology of money — a book I put aside when Freakonomics began to happen. The first chapter of the book was about a fellow named James Altucher, whom I’ve blogged about before. James’s relationship with money was fascinating and precarious. He grew up in a middle-class family that . . .

5/3/07

Poker: Skill vs. Chance

Those of you who’ve been reading this blog for a while, and especially those of you who play poker, may remember a research project called Pokernomics, which is meant to determine what makes a person a good (or bad) poker player. Lately, the question has become more than an academic one. As explained in this morning’s Wall Street Journal: The . . .

5/3/07

Since We’re on the Subject of Race and the N.B.A. …

Levitt blogged a few minutes ago about today’s N.Y. Times piece by Alan Schwarz about possible racial bias among N.B.A. referees. The piece is based on a draft academic paper by Joseph Price and Justin Wolfers. I have two quick things to add to Levitt’s post, and then a separate but related question. 1. Never in the history of the . . .

5/2/07

One Further Note on IBM Service

I blogged the other day about the nice service I got on having my IBM laptop repaired. The second commenter on the post, “Kent,” wrote this: Why is the co-author of Freakonomics buying overpriced insurance/ warranty for a computer?! He then goes on to cite our friend Tim Harford as arguing that add-on insurance for things like computers, cell phones, . . .

5/1/07

Should IBM Run the DMV, CIA, and TSA?

I blogged a few days ago about the sad fact that my beloved three-year-old child, a.k.a. 2687, a black IBM (Lenovo) laptop, had to be repaired. The LCD had gone dark. I tried to get it fixed locally, but none of the vendors recommended by IBM could move fast enough. Nor were any independent outfits like Geek Squad up to . . .

4/29/07

Wii? Whee!

Maybe it was guest blogger Paul Kimmelman’s dissection of the Wii shortage, or your many-voiced response. Regardless: Nintendo is boosting its Wii production: Nintendo’s president acknowledged Friday that the shortage of the hit Wii game machine was “abnormal,” and promised production was being boosted to increase deliveries by next month.”We must do our best to fix this abnormal lack of . . .

4/27/07

Computer Silence: How I Dread It

For the next five days, I will be forced to live without my laptop. It is an IBM (Lenovo) ThinkPad, machine type 2687 for those of you who care about such things, and I love it to death. My wife is a Mac devotee — a Maccabee is the term of affection in our home. I am perhaps less hip . . .

4/26/07

Abortion and Anti-Poverty in Mexico

We have blogged in the past about an anti-poverty program in Chicago that gave cash and prizes to poor families who paid their rent on time, got their kids to school, and looked for work. But Michael Bloomberg, the mayor of New York, has gone even further than Chicago to suss out an anti-poverty program that he may adapt for . . .

4/25/07

A Reluctant Note on the Virginia Tech Shooting

Aside from the actual sadness of events such as this, I am additionally saddened by how they tend to play out in public. They become instant platforms for people with all sorts of motives to opine and rant against their pet targets — media, guns, mental illness, privacy, etc. — when in fact what happened was a tragedy and an . . .

4/24/07

Sculptor, Market-Mover Needs Dylan Record Badly

Tim Davis, an artist who teaches at Bard College in upstate New York, wanted to sculpt a life-size self-portrait out of album covers of Bob Dylan’s Self Portrait. But he’s been having trouble getting enough copies, as explained in an e-mail note he sent along to friends: “I’ve been buying them on eBay, but have artificially driven up the price . . .

4/23/07

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