What’s So Special About the Subprime Mess?
…financial pundit you see on TV these days — mercifully not tossing out bold predictions: Much will depend on how large the shock to the financial system proves to be…
…financial pundit you see on TV these days — mercifully not tossing out bold predictions: Much will depend on how large the shock to the financial system proves to be…
…tracked 80,000 predictions over the course of 20 years. Turns out that humans are not great at predicting the future, and experts do just a bit better than a random…
We learn how to be less impatient, how to tell fake news from real, and the simple trick that nurses used to make better predictions than doctors. Journalist Manoush Zomorodi…
…and unemployment will be on June 1, 2015. Sam Bowman, the research director of the Adam Smith Institute, believes the new markets will “out-predict” official Bank of England predictions. “If…
…essay (PDF here) about the future of repugnance: “To summarize the predictions I’ve made here about 100 years from now, I think that the trend of increasing prosperity will continue,…
…of error” . . . Why measuring cause-and-effect is so hard . . . The folly of prediction . . . Are your predictions better than a dart-throwing chimp? ….
…been kind enough to create the official Freakonomics Prediction Center. It can be found in the right-hand column of our home page. We’ll post questions and you’ll supply the predictions….
…Freakonomics column examines the economic implications of a random series of ungovernable events: the weather. From rain in 19th-century Bavaria and its effect on the price of rye to predictions…
…part in the exercise, although seeing how good the predictions have turned out, I’m going to assert (rightly or wrongly) that I was one of the predictors. For your entertainment,…
…Horton’s essay, we’d love to hear what you think count as some of the worst predictions ever. The 21st Century the American Century? Don’t Bet on It By Raymond Horton…
…also turned up on this blog a few times.) Now Silver has written his first book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t….
…happens to humans when they start too quickly in a race and then slow way down). And then, not having learned my lesson about the foolhardiness of predictions, I went…
…they liked or disliked other movies. We use those predictions to make personal movie recommendations based on each customer’s unique tastes. And while Cinematch is doing pretty well, it can…
…charting the predictions made by high-ranking experts in those fields. What they’ve found is quite sobering. When it comes to describing how the future will unfold, the typical financial or…
…on gas prices; and FiveThirtyEight.com‘s Nate Silver (author of the recent The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t), talking about the reliability (or…
There’s a new John Tierney column out today, a good one, on doomsday predictions (mostly concerning biological weapons), and who’s backing up their predictions with cash (including Tierney) on LongBets.org….
…what price she will put on the scholarship’s value). Paris’s innovative action opens up a whole new dimension for athletes to back up their predictions with promises. The next time…
…at making predictions, they’re often lousy at recognizing their own self-interest.” This is an issue we glanced upon here; Kristof points to The Myth of the Rational Voter, a recent…
…predictions (which wonderfully include estimates of their own precision): It was a wonderful decision of Microsoft to use Farecast predictions as a central element of Bing Travel. Still, $115 million…
…of the decision tree. Rick Brooks and I showed in this 2005 article how information about entering credentials could produce a grid (on p. 1852) with predictions about the probability…
…week to week are neither independent nor identical – particularly in light of the upcoming holiday season. Speaking of predictions . . . The end of the auction also means…
…the 2007 season, just as they had in 2006. But both of those dire predictions turned out to be high of the mark — 2006 and 2007 turned out to…
…half of Matt Kahn’s thoughtful predictions at MarginalRevolution made this list. Anyway, here is the list, which I put into alphabetical order: Barro Bernheim Card Doug Diamond Peter Diamond Dixit…
…a bit, perhaps not all the way. In this spirit, we are also welcoming the posting of predictions, preferably signed, so that if you are right you can show the…
…Are your predictions better than a dart-throwing chimp? . . . The Internet’s economic impact will be “no greater than the fax machine’s” . . . “Ultracrepidarianism” . . ….
…It isn’t a long article; go read it, now. Even though it is pretty much a fool’s game to make predictions, I will go ahead and make a couple here:…
There are plenty of dire predictions about what will happen to our cities if the worst predictions about global warming were to come true: flooding, droughts, famine, chaos and massive…
…and October, the heart of the growing season, have been greater this year than in any year since 1996, according to the Journal analysis. The consequences of these bad predictions…
…videos can reside right here in a blog post. Our latest video has Levitt talking about how hard it is for economists to make macroeconomic predictions. I hope everyone in…
…light of this showing, will there be any demand for my Preakness picks? I think so. You see, when it comes to predictions, there is as much value in someone…
