Are We Getting Better at Predicting Tornadoes?
…prediction is Dr. Greg Forbes of the Weather Channel, whose recently developed Tornado Condition Index system, or TOR:CON, is widely seen as the most accurate at the moment. TOR:CON calculates…
…prediction is Dr. Greg Forbes of the Weather Channel, whose recently developed Tornado Condition Index system, or TOR:CON, is widely seen as the most accurate at the moment. TOR:CON calculates…
…very good at it. How do we know this? First of all, there’s this quote from Niels Bohr, the Nobel-winning physicist: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” But…
…that this cynical tool for legal prediction – which parallels a presumption of narrow economic self-interest – often guides the way I interpret actions and events. For example, Staples has…
Photo: Donald Lee Pardue According to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., there have been 1,151 tornadoes reported (though not confirmed) so far this year. By…
…will be the 135th and final mission for the program, 30 years after the first shuttle test flights occurred. Shuttle liftoff from Cape Kennedy, FL (Photodisc) For anyone who was…
…inspired by the idea of creating a predictions market for randomized trials (or for any sort of well-defined scientific test, for that matter). This contest was not that, but it…
…serious research papers about prediction markets and election forecasting, among other things. In fact, we still have one half-written draft of a paper that I need to return to. Despite…
…that are quicker to adopt the internet saw bigger declines in rape. He then does a nice thing in the paper, going beyond just this one prediction to test other…
…it is nice, albeit depressing, to see this prediction come true. From David Aronson in the New York Times: Unfortunately, the Dodd-Frank law has had unintended and devastating consequences, as…
…in studies of low-probability outcomes – perfect prediction by key explanatory variables. The study builds on the findings of the federal government’s Moving to Opportunity experiment, which started in the…
…I’m being naive, but I refuse to believe that within 20 years, half the U.S. population will be obese. Here’s to hoping this is one prediction that doesn’t come true….
…as the prediction that it will never happen again. But if you’re asking whether war is cyclical, or whether during periods of peace the urge for war inexorably builds up…
…economics faculty ran the site for a few years, dubbing it, “the world’s most accurate prediction market.” Apparently, Harvard wasn’t too keen on the idea, as the following notice now…
…book, The Darwin Economy: Liberty, Competition, and the Common Good, will spawn a similar conversation. In it, Frank makes a rather bold prediction: within the next century, Charles Darwin, the…
The same folks who stunned the world in 1972 with a prediction that economic growth would soon cease because of resource constraints are back again, predicting resource constraints will lead…
…prediction that the networked public sphere offers new pathways for discursive participation by a wider array of individuals, whereas the practices of the right suggest that a small group of…
…shot also. To show, I like Bodemeister, who will be one of the favorites. And no set of picks would be complete without a prediction as to which horse will…
…further undermine the benefits of specialization within the family. Improvements in women’s education will continue to raise the opportunity cost of staying at home. My prediction: The reach of same-sex…
…to their body mass index (obesity); 3) 5 the willingness of individuals to engage in stable relationships (the marriage rate). In line with the theoretical prediction by Davis (1988), we…
…still getting its collective head around the SOPA/PIPA debacle. We’ll make a (tentative) prediction: In the short-term, at least, the uncertainty following the defeat of SOPA and PIPA will lead…
…to do well, and two of them ended finishing first and second. The winner was 15-1. I also made a correct prediction as to which horse would finish last. I…
…of being long-term peaks as well. But Sivak is smart enough to hedge his prediction: However, because the changes in the rates from 2008 on likely reflect both the relevant…
…Sarah Dooley – “Peonies” from Conor Byrne on Vimeo. I wouldn’t claim that my “make it big” prediction has come true yet. But she seems to be on her way….
…predict nothing. The nice thing about making so few predictions is that by the time next year’s predictions roll around, no one can remember how last year’s predictions turned out….
It’s true that robots (and other smart technologies) will kill many jobs. It may also be true that newer collaborative robots (“cobots”) will totally reinvigorate how work gets done. That,…
Most of us are are afraid to ask sensitive questions about money, sex, politics, etc. New research shows this fear is largely unfounded. Time for some interesting conversations!…
Millions and millions are out of work, with some jobs never coming back. We speak with four economists — and one former presidential candidate — about the best policy options…
Trump says it would destroy us. Biden needs the voters who support it (especially the Bernie voters). The majority of millennials would like it to replace capitalism. But what is…
