An Economic Prediction That Actually Came True
…by my 2008 prediction, my friend asked for another prediction for 2009. I decided to quit while I was ahead. It inspired me, however, to come up with a new…
In this special episode of People I (Mostly) Admire, Steve Levitt speaks with the palliative physician B.J. Miller about modern medicine’s goal of “protecting a pulse at all costs.” Is…
Palliative physician B.J. Miller asks: Is there a better way to think about dying? And can death be beautiful?…
Data scientist Nate Silver gained attention for his election predictions. But even the best prognosticators get it wrong sometimes. He talks to Steve about making good decisions with data, why…
Harvard economist Raj Chetty uses tax data to study inequality, kid success, and social mobility. He explains why you should be careful when choosing your grade school teachers — and…
…by my 2008 prediction, my friend asked for another prediction for 2009. I decided to quit while I was ahead. It inspired me, however, to come up with a new…
Who doesn’t love a good prediction market? The Economist does and so does Wired — and we certainly do too, as evidenced here and here. Here is a new blog…
Prediction markets. Are there any other two words that couple as nicely as those, at least to readers of this blog? The promise of a prediction market is simple and…
…been kind enough to create the official Freakonomics Prediction Center. It can be found in the right-hand column of our home page. We’ll post questions and you’ll supply the predictions….
With industries relying on them and profits to be made, weather forecasts are more precise and more popular than ever. But there are clouds on the horizon. Zachary Crockett grabs…
…1994-1995 2005-2006 12 Golden State 2007-2008 2011-2012 5 Sacramento 1986-1987 1994-1995 9 Sacramento 2006-2007 2011-2012 6 LA Clippers 1997-1998 2004-2005 8 LA Clippers 1984-1985 1990-1991 7 LA Clippers 2006-2007 2010-2011…
…Minutes WP48 2011-12 Wins Produced 2011-12 WP48 2012-13 Wins Produced 2012-13 Difference between Column 7 & Column 5 Chris Paul PG 1162 0.324 7.8 0.374 9.1 1.0 Blake Griffin PF…
How do kids learn about money? What’s the big problem with education? And who made Raiders of the Lost Ark?…
…before about the?trove of name statistics that can be unearthed with an Alpha search.) Now if you have a favorite regression result, you can create a pretty prediction widget and…
Photo: markn3tel OK, so Newt Gingrich’s senior staff have quit. But Newt’s not the news. At least according to the political prediction markets. The real news is that Texas Governor…
By day, two leaders of Britain’s famous Nudge Unit use behavioral tricks to make better government policy. By night, they repurpose those tricks to improve their personal lives. They want…
How do you deal with a close talker? Is Angela drinking too much water? And why can’t Mike keep his phone out of his bedroom?
…Richard Thaler, the University of Chicago behavioral economist. (I had hoped that Lowenstein and Thaler might collaborate on a book after that article; I think it would have been fantastic.)…
“‘Libertarian paternalism’ is just the sort of phrase that makes me stop paying attention,” Levitt recently blogged. But he (and I) couldn’t stop reading about it in Richard Thaler’s and…
If you happen to be in New York on Mon., Nov. 11, you might want to come see Richard Thaler and Dean Karlan talk about “using evidence and behavioral economics…
…the “Nudge Unit,” after the excellent book Nudge by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein. Thaler regularly consults for the unit; Sunstein, who recently exited government service here in the U.S.,…
…on July 31, 2011: 40% (It was 65% a month ago) – Congress to approve increase in U.S. debt ceiling before midnight Aug. 31, 2011: 75% (It was 85% a…
Photo: Spike Mafford One of the hour-long Freakonomics Radio shows we’re currently producing is about prediction — the science behind it, the human need for it, the folly it often…
…government officials are being held personally accountable for the failure to adequately predict the scale of a natural disaster. If you ever heard our “Folly of Prediction” podcast, you might…
Dollar-wise, the sports industry is surprisingly small, about the same size as the cardboard-box industry. So why does it make so much noise? Because it reflects — and often amplifies…
My friends over at Tradesports are catching some heat. Tradesports is an online prediction market that allows you to make bets on all sorts of unusual outcomes. A controversy is…
I’m saddened to learn that John Delaney died attempting to reach the summit of Everest. Readers of this blog will know John as the leader of my favorite prediction market,…
Well, which is better at predicting your risk of having a heart attack? Bapu Jena explores the promise — and perils — of artificial intelligence in medicine….
For those of you who love prediction markets (a variety of which we’ve written about in the past), there’s a new site that looks to be as vast, inclusive, and…
InTrade, the Dublin-based prediction market (i.e., betting platform) that we’ve written about regularly over the years (including a Q&A with its founder, John Delaney, who has since died), is under…
