A Q&A With Intrade’s John Delaney

...speculation. Q. How does Intrade deal with insider trading? A. Insider trading is one of the wicked problems, perhaps. Intrade is about providing the best predictive information. If insiders have...

Day After the Debate: Intrade Odds of Republican Candidates Securing Presidential Nomination

...on Beltway journalists to decide who won and who lost, I figured: why not see what the market is saying? So I headed over to Intrade to take a look...

InTrade, Prediction Market to the Stars, Gets Banned From the U.S.

InTrade, the Dublin-based prediction market (i.e., betting platform) that we’ve written about regularly over the years (including a Q&A with its founder, John Delaney, who has since died), is under...

Is Too Much Attention Paid to Small InTrade Contracts?

Harvard economist Greg Mankiw recently posted this chart depicting an InTrade contract on the probability of a U.S. recession in 2008, with the following commentary: In online betting, the probability...

John Edwards May Not Want to Check InTrade Today; Fred Thomspon Might

On the InTrade prediction market site, John Edwards has fallen behind the undeclared Al Gore. Here is Edwards’s recent price chart: And here is Gore’s: Note how far Gore has...

FiveThirtyEighter Nate Silver Answers Your Questions About Politics, Baseball, and The Signal and the Noise

...Are they efficient? Intrade versus a pundit like Dick Morris is no contest. I hope 538 is competitive with or better than Intrade. I’m a fan of information aggregators and...

The Osama Spike on Obama's Re-Election Chances, Per InTrade

Here it is: upside of inertia These things don’t last long, do they? Meanwhile, Rick Perry has a better chance of winning the GOP’s nomination (29%) than Rupert...

What can the World Cup teach us about markets?

a vig, tradesports and intrade are clearinghouses. They provide a platform for bettors to come together and make deals amongst themselves. Since tradesports and intrade aren’t taking any position on...

Manipulation in Political Prediction Markets

My latest column in the W.S.J. assesses whether Intrade’s political prediction markets have been distorted by market manipulation: Over recent weeks we’ve observed a pattern of large orders for Sen....

The Politics of Political Prediction Markets

...maximum bet is set at only $500. And while I track InTrade closely, they’re based in Ireland, and are frowned upon by American regulators. Likewise, Betfair won’t deal with American...