A New Kind of Campaign Advertising?

An anonymous Intrade investor poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into McCain futures, inflating the market’s prediction that Sen. McCain would win the presidency, an internal Intrade investigation has revealed....

America’s Best Pundit: Economix vs. Freakonomics

...whether his readers are smarter than the InTrade prediction market. Let me offer Leonhardt a friendly Economix vs. Freakonomics bet. I’m willing to bet him the market is smarter than...

Was There Insider Trading on DSK News?

...early in the day on June 30, well before 9:38 PM: But how fine-tuned is InTrade’s closing-price chart? Let’s go one step further — to InTrade’s time and sales chart...

The Politics of Political Prediction Markets

...maximum bet is set at only $500. And while I track InTrade closely, they’re based in Ireland, and are frowned upon by American regulators. Likewise, Betfair won’t deal with American...

McCain Pulls Ahead Where It Really Matters

...Barack Obama on InTrade. This is news. It is perhaps not so surprising to see McCain/Palin get a big convention/Palin-novelty bump in opinion polls, for such polls merely mirror the...

Picking the Next President: What Are the Odds?

...And indeed, the latest poll-of-polls has the two candidates roughly even, with this morning’s numbers suggesting a trend back towards Obama. My usual starting point is to turn to Intrade.com,...

Gambling on the Go

...lay down a few bets on those developments? Well, there’s an app for that: Intrade, one of our favorite prediction markets, has just released a free app. Given the general...

Biden's Prediction: Inside Information or Pure Bluster?

...majority in the House: Price for 2010 US House of Representatives Control at intrade.com A GOP Senate takeover, meanwhile, doesn’t appear likely: Price for 2010 US Senate Control at intrade.com...

A Modest, Rational Proposal

...about; anyway…) Kristof begins by writing that “the pundit with perhaps the most outstanding record” in predicting electoral outcomes “is not a human but rather Intrade, a political betting Web...