A Q&A With Intrade’s John Delaney
…speculation. Q. How does Intrade deal with insider trading? A. Insider trading is one of the wicked problems, perhaps. Intrade is about providing the best predictive information. If insiders have…
…speculation. Q. How does Intrade deal with insider trading? A. Insider trading is one of the wicked problems, perhaps. Intrade is about providing the best predictive information. If insiders have…
InTrade, the Dublin-based prediction market (i.e., betting platform) that we’ve written about regularly over the years (including a Q&A with its founder, John Delaney, who has since died), is under…
…on Beltway journalists to decide who won and who lost, I figured: why not see what the market is saying? So I headed over to Intrade to take a look…
Harvard economist Greg Mankiw recently posted this chart depicting an InTrade contract on the probability of a U.S. recession in 2008, with the following commentary: In online betting, the probability…
On the InTrade prediction market site, John Edwards has fallen behind the undeclared Al Gore. Here is Edwards’s recent price chart: And here is Gore’s: Note how far Gore has…
Here it is: upside of inertia These things don’t last long, do they? Meanwhile, Rick Perry has a better chance of winning the GOP’s nomination (29%) than Rupert Murdoch has…
…Are they efficient? Intrade versus a pundit like Dick Morris is no contest. I hope 538 is competitive with or better than Intrade. I’m a fan of information aggregators and…
…early in the day on June 30, well before 9:38 PM: But how fine-tuned is InTrade’s closing-price chart? Let’s go one step further — to InTrade’s time and sales chart…
…a vig, tradesports and intrade are clearinghouses. They provide a platform for bettors to come together and make deals amongst themselves. Since tradesports and intrade aren’t taking any position on…
…builds a better bridge to the prediction markets. Just after the poll was announced, Intrade had Romney’s probability of winning in California as 94 percent (pretty close to the 92.7…
…maximum bet is set at only $500. And while I track InTrade closely, they’re based in Ireland, and are frowned upon by American regulators. Likewise, Betfair won’t deal with American…
…lay down a few bets on those developments? Well, there’s an app for that: Intrade, one of our favorite prediction markets, has just released a free app. Given the general…
…majority in the House: Price for 2010 US House of Representatives Control at intrade.com A GOP Senate takeover, meanwhile, doesn’t appear likely: Price for 2010 US Senate Control at intrade.com…
Are betting markets more accurate than polls? What kind of chaos would a second Trump term bring? And is U.S. democracy really in danger, or just “sputtering on”? (Part two…
…record (intrade) U.S. home prices aren’t expected to rebound until 2012, though they’re projected to be up 1-5 percent from Dec 2009 levels by 2015 (CME Group) There’s a less…
As evidenced by this chart from the betting site Intrade, the probability of Slumdog Millionaire winning the Oscar for Best Picture has risen over the past two months right along…
…about; anyway…) Kristof begins by writing that “the pundit with perhaps the most outstanding record” in predicting electoral outcomes “is not a human but rather Intrade, a political betting Web…
…weeks, just in case they win. Many of these economists have no chance whatsoever of winning. 4) Both Ladbrokes and InTrade allow betting on who will win the Economics Nobel…
Over at Intrade, there are two “hot” markets involving the odds that Congress will raise the U.S. debt ceiling. – Congress to approve increase in U.S. debt ceiling before midnight…
Human beings love to predict the future, but we’re quite terrible at it. So how about punishing all those bad predictions?
Human beings love to predict the future, but we’re quite terrible at it. So how about punishing all those bad predictions?
…InTrade (and before that, TradeSports). John, or his data, and sometimes his stories, have long graced the pages of this blog, including this Q&A with Dubner. His colleagues know him…
I’ve been watching developments in the Middle East and Northern Africa closely.? It can be hard to keep track of it all.? Fortunately, the prediction markets at?InTrade provide a useful…
…their predictions (as with intrade.com). And the statistical predictions could probably be improved if they relied on more recent data and controlled for more variables. But we are bound to…
Guess which governor wants to spring non-violent drug users from prison? (HT: Ivan Kronenfeld) Will the U.S. get its own InTrade to all betting on Presidential elections? A fixie index…
…paid off, according to this Chicago Tribune article. The prediction markets seem to agree. After a brief dip, Intrade now has Chicago back to even odds to get the Olympics….
…surprised to hear that I will be following the race on the political prediction markets at Intrade.com. Put simply, I’m willing to declare the winner as being whichever candidate sees…
…as poor: http://t.co/j1kJsAE 78% say getting worse: http://t.co/5zIGdzx 4 hours ago JustinWolfers Justin Wolfers Inflation expectations coming down sharply: http://t.co/eAfBO3l 5 hours ago JustinWolfers Justin Wolfers Intrade suggests rising risks…
…predictions, I will gladly join the throng. Until then: no deal. InTrade is an example of a prediction market that punishes bad predictions. Unfortunately, participation is voluntary. Wouldn’t it be…
…context where the prediction markets have been very successful. It doesn’t seem like Intrade.com covered the show (why?). But realitymarkets.com showed David Archuleta to have a commanding lead even after…
