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A Q&A With Intrade’s John Delaney

…speculation. Q. How does Intrade deal with insider trading? A. Insider trading is one of the wicked problems, perhaps. Intrade is about providing the best predictive information. If insiders have…









What can the World Cup teach us about markets?

…a vig, tradesports and intrade are clearinghouses. They provide a platform for bettors to come together and make deals amongst themselves. Since tradesports and intrade aren’t taking any position on…



Was There Insider Trading on DSK News?

…early in the day on June 30, well before 9:38 PM: But how fine-tuned is InTrade’s closing-price chart? Let’s go one step further — to InTrade’s time and sales chart…




The Politics of Political Prediction Markets

…maximum bet is set at only $500. And while I track InTrade closely, they’re based in Ireland, and are frowned upon by American regulators. Likewise, Betfair won’t deal with American…



Gambling on the Go

…lay down a few bets on those developments? Well, there’s an app for that: Intrade, one of our favorite prediction markets, has just released a free app. Given the general…





Is It Time to Name This Recession?

As evidenced by this chart from the betting site Intrade, the probability of Slumdog Millionaire winning the Oscar for Best Picture has risen over the past two months right along…



A Modest, Rational Proposal

…about; anyway…) Kristof begins by writing that “the pundit with perhaps the most outstanding record” in predicting electoral outcomes “is not a human but rather Intrade, a political betting Web…



The Nobel Prize in Economics

…weeks, just in case they win. Many of these economists have no chance whatsoever of winning. 4) Both Ladbrokes and InTrade allow betting on who will win the Economics Nobel…




Episode 41

The Folly of Prediction

Human beings love to predict the future, but we’re quite terrible at it. So how about punishing all those bad predictions?

Episode 41

The Folly of Prediction (Replay)

Human beings love to predict the future, but we’re quite terrible at it. So how about punishing all those bad predictions?


Middle East Despot Watch

I’ve been watching developments in the Middle East and Northern Africa closely.? It can be hard to keep track of it all.? Fortunately, the prediction markets at?InTrade provide a useful…




Today's Link Bait

Guess which governor wants to spring non-violent drug users from prison? (HT: Ivan Kronenfeld) Will the U.S. get its own InTrade to all betting on Presidential elections? A fixie index…




Watching the Democratic Races

…surprised to hear that I will be following the race on the political prediction markets at Intrade.com. Put simply, I’m willing to declare the winner as being whichever candidate sees…





What’s the Best Way to Predict American Idol?

…context where the prediction markets have been very successful. It doesn’t seem like Intrade.com covered the show (why?). But realitymarkets.com showed David Archuleta to have a commanding lead even after…



Markets Give Geithner a Vote of Confidence

Treasury Secretary Geithner‘s fears about unemployment appear to be disappearing fast. Or at least his personal fears. According to the prediction markets at Intrade.com, the chances that he departs his…