Is Eye Color the Key to the White House?
Despite Fred Thompson‘s so-so performance in his first presidential debate, and despite his serious lag on InTrade (Giuliani, 39; Romney, 24; Thompson, 19.5), the blogger Noele Kensut is calling for…
Despite Fred Thompson‘s so-so performance in his first presidential debate, and despite his serious lag on InTrade (Giuliani, 39; Romney, 24; Thompson, 19.5), the blogger Noele Kensut is calling for…
Album sales hit new lows in 2007. (Earlier) New InTrade markets predict the effects candidates may have on economic matters. Is this pollster luckier than everyone, or just better? Study…
There’s been plenty of talk in recent weeks that a recession is coming (or that we are already in recession). Indeed, the latest reading from InTrade.com suggests that there is…
…surprised to hear that I will be following the race on the political prediction markets at Intrade.com. Put simply, I’m willing to declare the winner as being whichever candidate sees…
…challenge the view that we are in the midst of a “great moderation,” in which the business cycle has been tamed? 4) The chances of a recession, according to Intrade.com,…
…context where the prediction markets have been very successful. It doesn’t seem like Intrade.com covered the show (why?). But realitymarkets.com showed David Archuleta to have a commanding lead even after…
…InTrade (and before that, TradeSports). John, or his data, and sometimes his stories, have long graced the pages of this blog, including this Q&A with Dubner. His colleagues know him…
Treasury Secretary Geithner‘s fears about unemployment appear to be disappearing fast. Or at least his personal fears. According to the prediction markets at Intrade.com, the chances that he departs his…
…their predictions (as with intrade.com). And the statistical predictions could probably be improved if they relied on more recent data and controlled for more variables. But we are bound to…
In the last couple of hours, the InTrade prediction markets have moved sharply in favor of the Republican candidate Scott Brown to defeat Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race….
…seriously.? InTrade says that the Dems are only a?one-in-eight to retain control, while uber-pundit?Nate Silver says there’s only a?one-in-five chance they retain control.? And Nate is?telling anyone who will listen…
…predictions, I will gladly join the throng. Until then: no deal. InTrade is an example of a prediction market that punishes bad predictions. Unfortunately, participation is voluntary. Wouldn’t it be…
I’ve been watching developments in the Middle East and Northern Africa closely.? It can be hard to keep track of it all.? Fortunately, the prediction markets at?InTrade provide a useful…
What’s next in public transportation? Urban gondolas? The most expensive textbook ever. Osama Bin Laden on InTrade: you could have made a fortune. Maybe. Someone actually yelled “Stop the Presses”…
Photo: markn3tel OK, so Newt Gingrich’s senior staff have quit. But Newt’s not the news. At least according to the political prediction markets. The real news is that Texas Governor…
The U.S. president is often called the “leader of the free world.” But if you ask an economist or a Constitutional scholar how much the occupant of the Oval Office…
The U.S. president is often called the “leader of the free world.” But if you ask an economist or a Constitutional scholar how much the occupant of the Oval Office…
